IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall across India in May, but more heatwaves in 8 states

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, May 1, 2026: After near-normal rains and thundershowers kept heatwaves from persisting for very long durations in April, the weather department has forecast plentiful rains in May as well – when the summer season peaks in India.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monthly rainfall is likely to more than normal in May, over 110% of the long-period average. The first western disturbance is likely to hit Northwest India around May 2, bringing rains over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and adjoining plain areas till May 6.

However, meteorologists have warned that the temperatures would peak around the second week of May from 8th to 14th, and later around May 22 to 28, which could also trigger heatwaves in many regions over Northwest India.

“May is when we experience the maximum thunderstorm activity, so we could expect the same this year. This will keep day temperatures to normal to below-normal over many parts of the country, except southern peninsula, some parts of northeast and northwest India where above-normal day temperatures are likely," said IMD Director-General Chief Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra.

While average monthly day-time temperatures are predicted to be near-normal, night-time temperatures will remain above-normal. According to the IMD Chief, this is linked to climate change which is making nights much warmer than before.

The weather department has also put Saurashtra-region of Gujarat, Maharashtra, southern parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, northern UP, Bihar as well as coastal states like Tamil Nadu and Odisha on high alert for heatwaves.

According to the forecast, the regions are expected to experience at least 3-4 more number of heatwave days than normal.

Millions of Indians are reeling under scorching temperatures this summer, with the mercury hurtling past 40-45℃ at stretch for days. The day temperatures peaked at 47.6℃ in Banda in Uttar Pradesh, as the mercury settled above-normal over many parts, including Delhi, over the last week, until the thunderstorms brought the much-needed respite.

Some regions experienced severe heatwave days when mercury was over 6.5℃ above-normal, especially in parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Vidarbha, Haryana, as well as Punjab.

EL NINO IN JULY

Most climate models indicate that global ocean phenomenon El Nino is most likely to form in July after the onset of monsoon, and it is expected to continue through early 2027. El Nino – warming of the sea-surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean – negatively impacts seasonal rains in India, often linked to droughts and sub-par monsoon.

The IMD is tracking the ocean conditions and is expected to release its forecast on the onset of monsoon data in mid-May, followed by a region-wise prediction of the seasonal rains.