Coastal places at high risk from sea rise - beware

Mangalore Today News Network

July 15, 2015: People living in low lying places along the coasts need to be aware. Global sea level  increases are high on probability of what is now a once-in-a-hundred-year flood by 1,000 times in Kolkata, 40 times in Shanghai and 200 times in New York, showed a multi-nation, multi-organization study by the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) on a risk assessment for climate change.

The study, which was commissioned by the British government, was released simultaneously at the stock exchanges in Mumbai and London’

While pointing to an increasing risk of floods in coastal cities, including Mumbai, due to a rise in sea levels , the report pointed out that, even if global temperature is stabilized, the sea level will continue to rise for many centuries as the deep ocean warms.

Mumbai is not just a coastal city but the financial nerve centre of the country, said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of CEEW, adding that even moderate climate- related events could weaken the ability of the urban system to cope with them. "The reason we are launching the report in the financial capitals of India and the UK is because the financial world recognizes risk and is geared towards preparing for worst case scenarios. That is something we want to learn from them."

Sea levels to rise 20 feet due to climate change  :  "Over 90% of heat is absorbed by oceans, only 2% by land and the rest by ice sheets. Our understanding of oceans is very limited compared with our knowledge of land. Our understanding of deep oceans is even less," Ghosh added. "When water warms, levels rise by value of thermal expansion. While this has occurred since industrialization, it is now taking place in shorter time frames. The pace at which sea levels rise is likely to increase as more greenhouse gases are being added to the atmosphere."

The report also looked at a 4Celsius rise in global temperatures as the tipping point, after which "the inconvenient" will turn "intolerable" for humans. According to the study, this rise in global temperatures would result in a 30% probability that temperatures in north IndiaRajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Bihar and Uttar Pradeshwould be so high that moderate to heavy outdoors activities would be impossible during summer.

Ghosh also pointed that the risks that arise as a result of climate change increase in a non-linear waythis means, the risk does not remain stable, but worsens over time. "While we cannot predict an earthquake, over time, we know the probability of an earthquake taking place in a given area. But earthquakes are not related to climate change. In case of climate change, the risk of a particular event today is not the same as in future, but is likely to increase. A flood that occurs in an area every 30 years, could now increase to every five years."