India likely to see above-normal monsoon this year: Weather office

India likely to see above-normal monsoon this year: Weather office

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, April 15, 2024: India is likely to witness above-normal rainfall this monsoon and the cumulative rainfall is estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

 

In a press conference, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the data from 1951 to 2023 showed that India saw above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed the El Nino event.
"India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average (87 cm)," he said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Currently, moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.

The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the early part of the monsoon season, the weather office said in a statement.

La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season, the IMD said in a statement.

The weather office also said it will issue updated rainfall forecasts for the monsoon season in the last week of May.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 per cent of the country’s GDP.

Courtesy: India Today