Post-poll survey: Congress leads in Karnataka, Kerala; routed in TN, AP

mangaloretoday.com/ CNN-IBN

Bangalore, May 12: The ’Narendra Modi wave’ does not seem to have impacted the South India with 131 Lok Sabha seats. According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey, the Congress-led UPA is expected to do much better than other regions of the country. This part of India has many strong regional parties and no national party can win big without taking their help.

Karnataka

There is finally some good news for the Congress and the ruling party is expected to get 12-16 seats in Karnataka. The BJP is likely to get 10-14 seats. The third player in the state JDS may get 1-3 seats. The AAP is not opening its account.

According to the survey, the Congress is expected to get 43 per cent votes share while the BJP may get 38 per cent votes. The others are likely to get 5 per cent of vote share.

In 2009 the Congress won 6 seats while the BJP got 19 Lok Sabha seats. The JDS won 3 seats.

In 2009, the then ruling BJP polled 41.6 per cent votes and the opposition Congress polled 37.7 per cent votes. The JDS polled 13.6 per cent and the others got 7.1 per cent votes.

The post-poll findings show that there is a two-way consolidation of votes behind the Congress and the BJP across the state.

If the post-poll findings are correct, chief minister Siddaramaiah who is facing internal rebellion will certainly save his seat. The BJP which is hoping to make big gains in Karnataka will be disappointed and the JDS led by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda is likely to remain a marginal player in the state.

The sample size of the survey is 1193 respondents and the survey was conducted in 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats.

 

According to the CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey, the Congress-led UPA is expected to do much better than other regions of the country.

Kerala

The ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is looking comfortable in Kerala. According to the post-poll survey, the UDF is expected to get 11-14 seats with 45 per cent vote share. The opposition CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to get 6-9 seats with 40 per cent vote share. The BJP is making a slight gain in votes, but unlikely to open its account in ’God’s Own Country’.

The UDF victory in Kerala would be good news for the battered Congress party. The AAP may get 3 per cent and the others may get remaining 2 per cent votes.

In 2009, the UDF swept the polls with 47.7 per cent votes and the LDF managed just 4 seats with 36 per cent votes.

The sample size for Kerala 682 and the post-poll was conducted in 13 Lok Sabha seats.

Tamil Nadu

The ruling AIADMK-led by chief minister J Jayalalithaa is making huge gains in Tamil Nadu. According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey the AIADMK is likely to get 22-28 seats with 39 per cent votes. The main opposition DMK is expected to get 7-11 seats with 26 per cent votes. The BJP alliance may get 4-6 seats with 16 per cent votes. The Congress is projected to get 9 per cent votes with no seats and the others may get 10 per cent votes.

The big victory for Jayalalithaa may change political equations in the state and she may even play a major role at the Centre. The BJP alliance seems to have failed to convert the hype into votes and seats for the party.

In 2009 the DMK won 18 Lok Sabha seats with 27.9 per cent votes and the AIADMK won 11 seats with 22.9 per cent votes.

The sample size for Tamil Nadu is 1300 and the survey was conducted in 20 Lok Sabha seats. Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats.

Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra)

The divided state of Andhra Pradesh may throw up some surprises on May 16. The state went to vote with a strong anti-Congress sentiment for dividing the state into two for ’electoral gains’. In a two-way contest between the YSR Congress Party led YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and the TDP-BJP led by N Chandrababu Naidu, the TDP-BJP alliance seems to have a slight edge over the YSR Congress Party.

According to the survey, the TDP-BJP alliance may get 11-15 seats with 43 per cent vote share and the YSR Congress Party may also get 11-15 seats with 40 per cent vote share. The ruling Congress may get just 7 per cent vote share and unlikely to get any seats. The others may get 10 per cent vote share.

In 2009, the Congress got 40.7 per cent vote share and won 20 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra. The TDP won just 5 seats with 35.1 per cent vote share and the others got 24.2 per cent vote share.

The sample size for Andhra Pradesh is 723 and the post-poll was conducted in 13 seats.

Telangana

India’s 29th state Telangana does not have many surprises to offer. The TRS which is riding high on the Telangana wave is expected to get 8-12 seats with 37 per cent vote share. The Congress is likely to get just 31 per cent of the votes and may end up winning 3-5 seats. The BJP-TDP alliance is projected to get 21 per cent vote share with 2-4 seats. The others may get 11 per cent vote share and no seats.

In 2009 the Congress swept Telangana by winning 13 seats with 36.3 per cent votes and the TRS won just 2 seats with 15.3 per cent vote share. This time the TRS seems to have turned the tables on the Congress, which split Andhra Pradesh hoping that it could sweep all 17 Lok Sabha seats.

The sample size for Telangana 506 respondents and the post-poll survey was conducted in 10 Lok Sabha seats.