Super El Nino may cause nearly 16,000 excess deaths in India over next six months: Study

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, Sep 24, 2026: India could witness nearly 16,000 additional heat-related deaths over the next six months due to extreme heat associated with the developing Super El Nino, according to a study by researchers from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.

The study estimates that around half of the projected deaths in India could occur between December and February. Maharashtra and Karnataka are expected to be among the worst-affected states, with an estimated 2,600 and 1,900 additional heat-related deaths respectively.

The southern peninsula and eastern coast are projected to experience a greater impact, while northern and western parts of the country could see a relatively lower impact because of the winter season.

Globally, the study projects around 451,000 excess deaths from extreme hot days associated with the Super El Nino over the next six months. India, with an estimated 15,800 additional deaths, ranks fourth among the countries projected to record the highest number of heat-related fatalities. Nigeria is projected to record 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.

Researchers said the impact during winter months would vary across India. Northern and central regions normally experience cooler winter temperatures, limiting heat-related deaths. Southern India, however, remains relatively warm during winter, meaning additional warming could significantly increase heat-related fatalities.

For Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, February 2027 is projected to be the month with the highest number of heat-related deaths. Maharashtra and Odisha are expected to see their highest projected fatalities in September and October.

Brazil and India are projected to record around 8,000 and 7,400 additional heat-related deaths respectively between December and February.

Researchers said the impact could extend beyond the current six-month forecast period, with heat-related deaths expected to increase further in northern hemisphere countries such as India and Pakistan during their summer months.

The researchers estimate that global land temperatures could remain around 1.2°C above normal in the coming months due to the Super El Nino, which began in June and is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

The unusually warm conditions are projected to result in 44% more extremely hot days compared with a normal year. The researchers said their modelling gives a 95% probability that the actual number of heat-related deaths will fall within the forecast range.