Third Covid-19 wave likely in August, India to see 1 lakh cases daily: Top ICMR scientist

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, Jul 17, 2021: It is likely that India will see almost 1 lakh cases every single day with the onset of the third wave of the viral infection in August, "sometime towards the end", a senior scientist at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has said.

 

"In the current situation, if the virus doesn’t mutate to lead to more transmissibility, the situation will be similar to the first wave," Professor Samiran Panda told India Today TV.

He however added that if the virus mutates further, then the situation could be worse.

Professor Panda is head of the division of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the ICMR.

On being asked about the plausibility of such an assessment, he said mathematical modelling done by the ICMR and the Imperial College London has indicated that low vaccination rates and easing restrictions will lead to a possible surge in Covid-19 case. However, this may not be as severe as the second wave.

"Without vaccinations getting ramped up and when restrictions are eased, there will be a chance of the third wave," Prof Panda said.
Professor Panda is also a co-researcher of a study done by the ICMR called ’Plausibility of a third wave of Covid-19 in India: A mathematical modelling-based analysis’. The study has been carried out by the ICMR along with the School of Public Health, Imperial College, London.

Published in the peer-reviewed Indian Journal of Medical Research, the study demonstrated plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave.

"Looking at the present situation, one can assume that there will be a third wave," Prof Panda told India Today TV.

He said that non-pharmacological interventions, like avoiding mass gatherings and wearing masks will help contain the spread of the infection.

Asked how much of an impact would India’s low vaccination rate have on the severity of the third wave, Prof Panda said he agrees that the current vaccination rate is low and "there should be a smart vaccination plan".

"Test positivity ratio should be guiding us when it comes to easing restrictions," he said, adding that tourists moving from one place to another would lead to changes in population density. "Such travel should be avoided."

He also said states reporting an increase in RO rate or reproductive rate gives him reason to believe that the second wave is inevitable.

Professor Panda also pointed towards another study done by the ICMR to assess breakthrough infections to underscore that vaccinations will help in reducing the severity of the infection and make the third wave less lethal.

On Friday, a study released by the ICMR indicated that over 86 per cent breakthrough infections in India were because of the Delta variant. It added that despite the infections, lesser people had to be hospitalised.

The first nationwide study of post-vaccination infections, found that only 9.8 per cent cases required hospitalisation and fatality was observed in only 0.4 per cent cases.

Courtesy:India Today