Congress set to trounce BJP, win big in Karnataka: Pre-poll survey

Mangaloretoday/CNN/IBN

Bangalore, April 25: The Congress is on a comeback trail in Karnataka and all set to regain power in the state. According to a pre-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week in 294 locations of 75 constituencies spread across Karnataka a total of 4,198 people were interviewed and the results reveal that Congress is all set to decimate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and storm the Vidhana Soudha with a clear majority.

 

With an overwhelming lead of almost 14 percentage points in vote share over the BJP, the Congress (37 per cent vote share) is likely to secure 117-129 seats in the 224-member Assembly. According to the CSDS pre-poll survey the BJP will secure just 23 per cent of votes and win 39-49 seats, a huge fall from its heyday of 2008 when Karnataka become India’s first southern state to have a BJP government.

Former Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, who quit the BJP and formed Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), is expected to hit his former party hard, looking set to secure seven per cent of the votes, while the Janata Dal Secular (JDS), with 20 per cent votes, will bag 34-44 seats, according to the survey. The other smaller parties and independents are likely to secure 13 per cent of the votes and win 14-22 seats.

 

While the Congress was the biggest party in terms of vote share in 2008 with 35 per cent, and the BJP came second with 34 per cent, the latter won more seats than the former to form the government. But the scenario in 2013 is completely different, with the Congress likely to gain two percentage points, but the BJP set to suffer a major jolt by losing 11 percentage points in vote share to slump to 23 per cent - and losing power in the process.

The JDS is also likely to gain one per cent in vote share to move to 20 per cent in 2013, while the Yeddyurappa-led KJP, which did not exist in 2008, will secure seven per cent of the votes. Other smaller parties and independents are set to corner 13 per cent of the votes, up one per cent.

A look at the different regions shows that the Congress is comfortably ahead in most of them, whereas the BJP and the JDS are involved in a close race to determine who will take the second spot. Five years ago, most people liked both the BJP and Yedyurappa, but in 2013 most people dislike them.

In Hyderabad Karnataka with 31 seats, the Congress has consolidated its lead over the BJP while the JDS has been on a downslide. The Congress looks set to recover and lead the BJP in Mumbai Karnataka which accounts for 50 seats whereas in Coastal Karntaka (21 seats) it is a close race between the two principal rivals with the JDS also improving its prospects.

Central Karnataka (35 seats) is also likely to see a Congress triumph as the BJP’s base in the region has been dented by the KJP. In Southern Karnataka (51 seats) it is close race between the JDS and Congress while Bangalore (36 seats) is backing the Congress as the BJP’s fortunes take a dip while the JDS is also making some gains.

Hyderabad Karnataka includes Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bidar, Raichur and Koppal districts; Mumbai Karnataka includes Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gadag, Dharwad and Haveri districts; Central Karnataka includes Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Shimoga and Chikmagalur districts; Coastal Karnataka includes Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada and Kodagu.

In fact the BJP is down across all key socio-economic categories compared to 2008 with the Congress reaping the benefits. There is a strong anti-incumbency against the present government with 57 per cent of the respondents are against the BJP getting another chance to rule the state.

The BJP government has been assessed to be worse than the Congress-led Central government. But there is some hope for the BJP as its MLAs have been assessed better than the state government.

In another major revelation, Yeddyurappa’s government has been rated slightly better than Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar’s governments. Ironically Yeddyurappa was forced to quit following allegations of massive corruption.

Even though the Congress is way ahead of its rivals, its leaders are trailing in the chief ministership race which is led by HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS. Kumaraswamy is backed by 18 per cent of the respondents while KJP chief Yeddyurappa is second with 10 per cent of the votes and Siddaramaiah is the most popular of all Congress leaders with nine per cent.

Caste is set to play a major role with Vokkaligas overwhelmingly rooting for Kumaraswamy and Lingayats backing Yeddyurappa. Kumaraswamy is also viewed as the best chief minister ever across all age groups while SM Krishna is a close second and Yeddyurappa third.

In case of a hung Assembly most prefer a Congress-JDS alliance with JDS voters being overwhelmingly is favour of doing so.

Most of the respondents also say that the Congress provided the best governance out of all governments in last 15 years and satisfaction with the UPA government and Manmohan Singh is also fairly high.

Elections to the 224-member Assembly will take place in a single phase on May 5 and the counting is on May 8.