Festival season may add over 1.5 lakh new Covid-19 cases in Karnataka over next 2 weeks: Analytics

Festival season may add over 1.5 lakh new Covid-19 cases in Karnataka over next 2 weeks: Analytics

Mangalore Today News Network

Bengaluru , Oct 21, 2020:    While the nation is witnessing a declining trend in the number of active Covid-19 cases as recoveries overtake new infections, the situation in Karnataka seems to be getting worrisome.

 

According to analytics put together by Pratian Technologies in collaboration with experts across the world, Karnataka seems to be doing well in the last one week, however, around 1,04,537 cases are expected to be added by October 29.

The number of active coronavirus cases, meanwhile, seems to be coming down over the next two weeks by up to 20 per cent, as per the analysis.

Subramanian Sivakumar, chairman and CEO of Pratian Technologies told India Today TV that what matters most is the active cases coming down over the next two weeks. "This means, Karnataka has a great opportunity to see the bending of the curve. Our projection is that up to 20 per cent of the active cases will come down," he said.

The analysis is being carried out by Dr Shashank Shah, Southeast Asia Institute Fellow, 2017, Harvard University, Dr Dave Richards, co-founder of the Innovation Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Dr Subramanian Sivakumar, whose firm has collaborated in developing this particular model.

As of today, close to 40 per cent of all the cases in Karnataka are being reported from Bengaluru Urban. By October 29, out of a total 8,48,385 cases in the state, Bengaluru Urban will account for close to 3,56,858 cases, as per the analytics.

According to Subramanian, "There are some other districts that are also seeing an increase in the number of cases, but you cannot generalise Bengaluru with other districts because 40 per cent is a very big critical mass. Bengaluru’s curve has still not started bending, which is an area of concern."

With Dussehra festivities beginning October 17, Pratian Technologies has factored what might happen if people show laxity and go all out to enjoy the festival.

"There could be a case where Karnataka’s active cases can get into an increasing trend instead of a decreasing trend. This means, while we are expecting 17-20 per cent of active cases to come down, we might have an 8 per cent increase in active cases simply because of the impact of the festival and shopping," Subramanian said.

Subramanian Sivakumar said that what happens over the next two weeks is important because, "if Karnataka numbers dip, as we are expecting, and if especially Bengalureans take adequate precautions and Bengaluru numbers dip, then Diwali shopping impact might be much lesser. But, if the numbers go up in Dussehra, we have a serious problem running up to Diwali."

Courtesy:India Today